Derrick HenryorJavonte Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Javonte Williams in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Javonte Williams comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Derrick Henry, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs), Javonte Williams faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 29.9
- Big game (20+):
- 31%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 15.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 17.0 |
| Standard projection | 16.2 | 14.3 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | RB6 |
| Matchup | at ATL | vs TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.8 | 18.6 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 14.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 74% |
| Trade value | 69 | 56 |