Derrick HenryorTony Pollard?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Tony Pollard in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tony Pollard comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Derrick Henry, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Derrick Henry has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs); Tony Pollard faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 23.4
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET | Tony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.3 | 12.3 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 13.2 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 11.5 |
| Rank this week | RB11 | RB13 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.1 | 13.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 10.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 82% |
| Trade value | 32 | 40 |