Chase BrownorKyren Williams?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams outscores Chase Brown in 69% of simulations.
Chase Brown still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Kyren Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyren Williams projects 4.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (9% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams wins 75%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 7.0
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 24.0
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.8 | 15.2 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 16.8 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 13.6 |
| Rank this week | RB16 | RB8 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 15.7 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 63% | 64% |
| Trade value | 19 | 38 |