Breece HallorChase Brown?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Breece Hall in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Breece Hall comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. These are their next games: Breece Hall in Week 9, Chase Brown in Week 10. Breece Hall projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Chase Brown faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (13% fewer than average to RBs), Breece Hall faces the Kansas City Chiefs (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 24%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Breece HallRB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.0 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 12.2 | 13.2 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | RB16 | Not ranked |
| Matchup | at KC | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 11.9 | 14.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 48% | 69% |
| Trade value | 15 | 15 |