Aaron JonesorChase Brown?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Aaron Jones in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Jones comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chase Brown projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.1
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 12.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB17 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 14.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 70% |
| Trade value | 3 | 25 |