Ashton JeantyorChase Brown?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Chase Brown in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Chase Brown comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Ashton Jeanty has the better matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (20% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.1
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 24.1
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 11.6 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 13.3 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 10.0 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | RB17 |
| Matchup | vs KC | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 11.3 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 14.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 70% |
| Trade value | 30 | 27 |