Chase BrownorRico Dowdle?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Rico Dowdle in 55% of simulations.
Rico Dowdle still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Chase Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chase Brown projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Rico Dowdle has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (13% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (13% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | RB16 | RB17 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 63% | 47% |
| Trade value | 19 | 4 |