Derrick HenryorQuinshon Judkins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Quinshon Judkins in 63% of simulations.
Quinshon Judkins still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so Derrick Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Derrick Henry projects 4.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Quinshon Judkins has the better matchup against the New York Jets (31% more than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to RBs). Derrick Henry still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 30.2
- Big game (20+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 11.4
- Ceiling
- 22.9
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.0 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.6 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 16.4 | 11.2 |
| Rank this week | RB6 | RB10 |
| Matchup | at ATL | at NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.8 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 11.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 66% |
| Trade value | 68 | 12 |