Chase BrownorD'Andre Swift?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores D'Andre Swift in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: D'Andre Swift comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chase Brown projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Chase Brown faces the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs), D'Andre Swift faces the Green Bay Packers (12% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown wins 58%; in Standard leagues, D'Andre Swift is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 5.3
- Median
- 12.5
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 14.1 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 12.9 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | RB9 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 14.6 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 13.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 35% |
| Trade value | 33 | 32 |