D'Andre SwiftorJahmyr Gibbs?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs outscores D'Andre Swift in 70% of simulations.
D'Andre Swift still comes out ahead in the other 30%, so Jahmyr Gibbs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jahmyr Gibbs projects 9.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jahmyr Gibbs faces the Carolina Panthers (21% more than average to RBs), D'Andre Swift faces the New York Jets (27% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 14.7
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 9.8
- Median
- 23.5
- Ceiling
- 47.0
- Big game (20+):
- 60%
- Dud (under 6):
- 3%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jahmyr GibbsRB, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 26.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.8 | 29.0 |
| Standard projection | 15.1 | 23.3 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | RB1 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.4 | 29.8 |
| Last season per game | 13.2 | 19.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 69% |
| Trade value | 36 | 100 |