Derrick HenryorJaylen Warren?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Jaylen Warren in 59% of simulations.
Jaylen Warren still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Derrick Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Derrick Henry projects 3.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Derrick Henry faces the Cleveland Browns (7% fewer than average to RBs), Jaylen Warren faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.8
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 31.1
- Big game (20+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.8
- Big game (20+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.7 | 14.7 |
| PPR projection | 18.3 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 17.1 | 13.1 |
| Rank this week | RB4 | RB7 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.6 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 55% | 87% |
| Trade value | 65 | 46 |