Derrick HenryorKenneth Walker III?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III outscores Derrick Henry in 66% of simulations.
Derrick Henry still comes out ahead in the other 34%, so Kenneth Walker III is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kenneth Walker III projects 5.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Kenneth Walker III has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (6% more than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 32.4
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET | Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.3 | 18.4 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 19.8 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 17.0 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | RB4 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.1 | 22.9 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 10.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 65% |
| Trade value | 31 | 71 |