Javonte WilliamsorJaylen Warren?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores Jaylen Warren in 56% of simulations.
Jaylen Warren still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Javonte Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Javonte Williams projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jaylen Warren has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| PPR projection | 14.0 | 13.4 |
| Standard projection | 11.7 | 10.6 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | RB14 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 11.9 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 90% |
| Trade value | 35 | 21 |