Jaylen WarrenorKenneth Walker III?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III outscores Jaylen Warren in 58% of simulations.
Jaylen Warren still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Kenneth Walker III is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kenneth Walker III projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Kenneth Walker III faces the Los Angeles Chargers (9% fewer than average to RBs), Jaylen Warren faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.8
- Big game (20+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 7.0
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 27.8
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.7 | 16.4 |
| PPR projection | 16.2 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 13.1 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | RB7 | RB6 |
| Matchup | at TB | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.7 | 26.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 10.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 75% |
| Trade value | 46 | 62 |