Bucky IrvingorJavonte Williams?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams outscores Bucky Irving in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Bucky Irving comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Javonte Williams projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Bucky Irving
Floor
6.0
Median
11.5
Ceiling
20.2
Big game (20+):
10%
Dud (under 6):
10%
Javonte Williams
Floor
6.1
Median
12.0
Ceiling
21.7
Big game (20+):
13%
Dud (under 6):
9%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJavonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection12.512.9
PPR projection14.414.0
Standard projection10.711.7
Rank this weekRB13RB12
Matchupvs GBat HOU
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game11.515.2
Last season per game12.314.1
Snap share, last game52%76%
Trade value1735