Bucky IrvingorJavonte Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores Bucky Irving in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bucky Irving comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Javonte Williams projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 20.2
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.5 | 12.9 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 14.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | RB12 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.5 | 15.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 14.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 76% |
| Trade value | 17 | 35 |