Chase BrownorJonathan Taylor?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor outscores Chase Brown in 69% of simulations.
Chase Brown still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Jonathan Taylor is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jonathan Taylor projects 6.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Jonathan Taylor has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (17% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Atlanta Falcons (7% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Jonathan Taylor wins 64%; in Standard leagues, Jonathan Taylor wins 74%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 20.7
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 16.6
- Ceiling
- 33.7
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 8%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 a.m. ET | Jonathan TaylorRB, IND, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.4 | 18.8 |
| PPR projection | 15.0 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 9.9 | 17.3 |
| Rank this week | RB16 | RB3 |
| Matchup | at ATL | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 20.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 62% |
| Trade value | 17 | 51 |