Chase BrownorDerrick Henry?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Chase Brown in 56% of simulations.
Chase Brown still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Derrick Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Derrick Henry projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Chase Brown has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Derrick Henry still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown is the pick at 53%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry wins 63%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 29.9
- Big game (20+):
- 31%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 16.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | RB5 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 62% |
| Trade value | 33 | 69 |