Aaron JonesorJ.K. Dobbins?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores J.K. Dobbins in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: J.K. Dobbins comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Aaron Jones, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Aaron Jones projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Aaron Jones faces the Buffalo Bills (14% more than average to RBs), J.K. Dobbins faces the Carolina Panthers (20% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 15.8
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| Rank this week | RB19 | RB21 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.3 | 6.9 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 40% | 21% |
| Trade value | — | — |