J.K. DobbinsorSaquon Barkley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley outscores J.K. Dobbins in 56% of simulations.
J.K. Dobbins still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Saquon Barkley is the better bet, not a sure thing. Saquon Barkley projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Saquon Barkley still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 13.3
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 9.4 |
| PPR projection | 8.7 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.9 | 8.6 |
| Rank this week | RB31 | RB28 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 72% |
| Trade value | — | 7 |