RJ HarveyorSaquon Barkley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley outscores RJ Harvey in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: RJ Harvey comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Saquon Barkley, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. RJ Harvey projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. RJ Harvey has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Saquon Barkley still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, RJ Harvey is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | RJ HarveyRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.6 | 9.4 |
| PPR projection | 11.5 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 8.6 |
| Rank this week | RB27 | RB28 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 10.8 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 36% | 72% |
| Trade value | 1 | 7 |