RJ HarveyorSaquon Barkley?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley outscores RJ Harvey in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: RJ Harvey comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Saquon Barkley, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. RJ Harvey projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. RJ Harvey has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Saquon Barkley still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, RJ Harvey is the pick at 54%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

RJ Harvey
Floor
2.9
Median
8.2
Ceiling
17.7
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
34%
Saquon Barkley
Floor
3.8
Median
8.5
Ceiling
16.2
Big game (20+):
4%
Dud (under 6):
28%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatRJ HarveyRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETSaquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection9.69.4
PPR projection11.510.2
Standard projection7.78.6
Rank this weekRB27RB28
Matchupat SFvs LAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.96.5
Last season per game10.813.4
Snap share, last game36%72%
Trade value17