J.K. DobbinsorQuinshon Judkins?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins outscores J.K. Dobbins in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: J.K. Dobbins comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Quinshon Judkins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Quinshon Judkins projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Quinshon Judkins faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (9% fewer than average to RBs). Quinshon Judkins still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

J.K. Dobbins
Floor
4.0
Median
7.6
Ceiling
13.1
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Quinshon Judkins
Floor
3.3
Median
7.9
Ceiling
15.6
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
33%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJ.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETQuinshon JudkinsRB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.29.0
PPR projection8.610.1
Standard projection7.87.9
Rank this weekRB29RB28
Matchupat SFvs PIT
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game4.37.4
Last season per game11.011.2
Snap share, last game49%51%
Trade value—2