J.K. DobbinsorQuinshon Judkins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Quinshon Judkins
Quinshon Judkins outscores J.K. Dobbins in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: J.K. Dobbins comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Quinshon Judkins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Quinshon Judkins projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Quinshon Judkins faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (9% fewer than average to RBs). Quinshon Judkins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 15.6
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.2 | 9.0 |
| PPR projection | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| Rank this week | RB29 | RB28 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 7.4 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 51% |
| Trade value | — | 2 |