Tony PollardorWoody Marks?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard outscores Woody Marks in 58% of simulations.

Woody Marks still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Tony Pollard is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tony Pollard projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Woody Marks has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs); Tony Pollard faces the Baltimore Ravens (1% more than average to RBs). Tony Pollard still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Tony Pollard
Floor
3.5
Median
8.2
Ceiling
15.7
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Woody Marks
Floor
2.2
Median
6.9
Ceiling
15.8
Big game (20+):
4%
Dud (under 6):
43%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatTony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETWoody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection9.18.2
PPR projection10.19.2
Standard projection8.17.2
Rank this weekRB27RB30
Matchupat BALvs DAL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.56.4
Last season per game10.08.3
Snap share, last game53%37%
Trade value——