Tony PollardorWoody Marks?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard outscores Woody Marks in 58% of simulations.
Woody Marks still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Tony Pollard is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tony Pollard projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Woody Marks has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs); Tony Pollard faces the Baltimore Ravens (1% more than average to RBs). Tony Pollard still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 15.7
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 15.8
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Tony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Woody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.1 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | RB27 | RB30 |
| Matchup | at BAL | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.5 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 37% |
| Trade value | — | — |