Tyler AllgeierorWoody Marks?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Woody Marks
Woody Marks outscores Tyler Allgeier in 60% of simulations.
Tyler Allgeier still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Woody Marks is the better bet, not a sure thing. Woody Marks projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Woody Marks faces the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs), Tyler Allgeier faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Woody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.5 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 9.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.6 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB31 | RB27 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.6 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 36% | 37% |
| Trade value | — | — |