Kenny GainwellorTyler Allgeier?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Kenny Gainwell

Kenny Gainwell outscores Tyler Allgeier in 56% of simulations.

Tyler Allgeier still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Kenny Gainwell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kenny Gainwell projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Kenny Gainwell faces the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs), Tyler Allgeier faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Kenny Gainwell
Floor
1.7
Median
6.0
Ceiling
15.3
Big game (20+):
4%
Dud (under 6):
50%
Tyler Allgeier
Floor
1.7
Median
5.2
Ceiling
11.9
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
57%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatKenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.46.2
PPR projection9.27.1
Standard projection5.75.2
Rank this weekRB33RB37
Matchupvs GBat NYG
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game2.44.6
Last season per game10.96.8
Snap share, last game46%36%
Trade value——