Kenny GainwellorRachaad White?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Rachaad White

Rachaad White outscores Kenny Gainwell in 55% of simulations.

Kenny Gainwell still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Rachaad White is the better bet, not a sure thing. Rachaad White projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kenny Gainwell has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs); Rachaad White faces the Indianapolis Colts (3% more than average to RBs). Rachaad White still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Kenny Gainwell
Floor
1.7
Median
6.0
Ceiling
15.3
Big game (20+):
4%
Dud (under 6):
50%
Rachaad White
Floor
2.6
Median
7.0
Ceiling
14.9
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
41%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatKenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETRachaad WhiteRB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.48.1
PPR projection9.29.5
Standard projection5.76.8
Rank this weekRB33RB31
Matchupvs GBvs IND
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game2.48.5
Last season per game10.97.2
Snap share, last game46%43%
Trade value——