Bam KnightorKenny Gainwell?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kenny Gainwell
Kenny Gainwell outscores Bam Knight in 56% of simulations.
Bam Knight still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Kenny Gainwell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kenny Gainwell projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Kenny Gainwell faces the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs), Bam Knight faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Bam Knight is the pick at 51%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.2
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.0
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.2 | 7.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.0 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Rank this week | RB36 | RB33 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 10.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 6% | 46% |
| Trade value | — | — |