Bam KnightorChris Rodriguez Jr.?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Bam Knight in 57% of simulations.

Bam Knight still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Cincinnati Bengals (19% more than average to RBs), Bam Knight faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. wins 52%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Bam Knight
Floor
1.6
Median
5.2
Ceiling
12.0
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
58%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Floor
2.3
Median
6.2
Ceiling
12.8
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
48%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETChris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.27.0
PPR projection7.07.1
Standard projection5.57.0
Rank this weekRB36RB34
Matchupat NYGat CIN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game2.44.4
Last season per game6.87.5
Snap share, last game6%21%
Trade value——