Alvin KamaraorMichael Carter?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Michael Carter in 75% of simulations.
Michael Carter comes out ahead in the other 25%. Alvin Kamara projects 4.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Alvin Kamara has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (19% more than average to RBs); Michael Carter faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 9.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 70%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.3 | 5.0 |
| PPR projection | 11.2 | 6.0 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 3.9 |
| Rank this week | RB26 | RB44 |
| Matchup | vs CAR | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 1.9 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | — |