Braelon AllenorMichael Carter?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Michael Carter
Michael Carter outscores Braelon Allen in 55% of simulations.
Braelon Allen still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Michael Carter is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Carter projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Michael Carter has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (4% more than average to RBs); Braelon Allen faces the New England Patriots (11% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Michael Carter wins 50%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 11.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 60%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Braelon AllenRB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB37 |
| Matchup | at NE | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | — |
| Last season per game | 3.6 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |