Brian RobinsonorMichael Carter?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Michael Carter
Michael Carter outscores Brian Robinson in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Brian Robinson comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Michael Carter, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Brian Robinson projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Michael Carter has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (4% more than average to RBs); Brian Robinson faces the Chicago Bears (7% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Michael Carter wins 60%; in Standard leagues, Brian Robinson is the pick at 51%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian RobinsonRB, ATL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| Rank this week | RB35 | RB37 |
| Matchup | vs CHI | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.7 | — |
| Last season per game | 3.4 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 22% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |