Chris Rodriguez Jr.orKenny Gainwell?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Kenny Gainwell in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kenny Gainwell comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Chris Rodriguez Jr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kenny Gainwell projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (19% more than average to RBs); Kenny Gainwell faces the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Kenny Gainwell is the pick at 57%; in Standard leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.0
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.0 | 7.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.1 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.0 | 5.7 |
| Rank this week | RB34 | RB33 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| Last season per game | 7.5 | 10.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 21% | 46% |
| Trade value | — | — |