Alvin KamaraorMike Washington Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Mike Washington Jr. in 60% of simulations.
Mike Washington Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Alvin Kamara is the better bet, not a sure thing. Alvin Kamara projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Alvin Kamara faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs), Mike Washington Jr. faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 67%; in Standard leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 50%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 10.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 66%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mike Washington Jr.RB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.7 | 5.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | RB35 | RB39 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | vs KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 32% | 16% |
| Trade value | — | — |