Alvin KamaraorSaquon Barkley?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley outscores Alvin Kamara in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Alvin Kamara comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Saquon Barkley, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Saquon Barkley projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Saquon Barkley faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (22% fewer than average to RBs), Alvin Kamara faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| Standard projection | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| Rank this week | RB33 | RB29 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.9 | 5.3 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 38% | 7% |
| Trade value | — | — |