Alvin KamaraorRico Dowdle?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Rico Dowdle in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Rico Dowdle comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Alvin Kamara, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Alvin Kamara projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Alvin Kamara has the better matchup against the New York Giants (11% more than average to RBs); Rico Dowdle faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% fewer than average to RBs). Rico Dowdle is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 15.9
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 9.1 |
| Standard projection | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | RB23 | RB25 |
| Matchup | at NYG | at TB |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 7.8 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 27% | 26% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |