Alvin KamaraorTony Pollard?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard outscores Alvin Kamara in 56% of simulations.
Alvin Kamara still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Tony Pollard is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tony Pollard projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Alvin Kamara has the better matchup against the New York Giants (12% more than average to RBs); Tony Pollard faces the Indianapolis Colts (4% more than average to RBs). Tony Pollard still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Tony Pollard wins 61%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 15.9
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 15.8
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| Rank this week | RB21 | RB17 |
| Matchup | at NYG | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 10.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 27% | 48% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |