Bhayshul TutenorJ.K. Dobbins?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Bhayshul Tuten

Bhayshul Tuten outscores J.K. Dobbins in 60% of simulations.

J.K. Dobbins still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Bhayshul Tuten is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bhayshul Tuten projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bhayshul Tuten has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (19% more than average to RBs); J.K. Dobbins faces the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Bhayshul Tuten
Floor
3.2
Median
9.1
Ceiling
18.6
Big game (20+):
8%
Dud (under 6):
29%
J.K. Dobbins
Floor
4.0
Median
7.6
Ceiling
13.1
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
31%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBhayshul TutenRB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJ.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection10.18.2
PPR projection10.88.6
Standard projection9.57.8
Rank this weekRB25RB29
Matchupat CINat SF
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game12.84.3
Last season per game5.611.0
Snap share, last game48%49%
Trade value——