Alvin KamaraorJ.K. Dobbins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins outscores Alvin Kamara in 55% of simulations.
Alvin Kamara still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so J.K. Dobbins is the better bet, not a sure thing. J.K. Dobbins projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Alvin Kamara is the pick at 51%; in Standard leagues, J.K. Dobbins wins 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.9 | 8.0 |
| PPR projection | 9.3 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 6.4 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | RB33 | RB31 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.9 | 4.8 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 38% | 32% |
| Trade value | — | — |