Ashton JeantyorSaquon Barkley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Saquon Barkley in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Saquon Barkley comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs), Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.1
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 24.1
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | RB18 |
| Matchup | vs KC | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 72% |
| Trade value | 32 | 20 |