Chase BrownorJ.K. Dobbins?
Week 7 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores J.K. Dobbins in 56% of simulations.
J.K. Dobbins still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Chase Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chase Brown projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (12% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Baltimore Ravens (4% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown wins 63%; in Standard leagues, Chase Brown wins 51%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.8
- Median
- 10.7
- Ceiling
- 19.9
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.1 | 11.1 |
| Standard projection | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | RB16 |
| Matchup | at BAL | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.6 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 60% | 52% |
| Trade value | 26 | 8 |