Chuba HubbardorJ.K. Dobbins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chuba Hubbard
Chuba Hubbard outscores J.K. Dobbins in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: J.K. Dobbins comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Chuba Hubbard, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chuba Hubbard projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. J.K. Dobbins has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs); Chuba Hubbard faces the Detroit Lions (10% fewer than average to RBs). Chuba Hubbard still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chuba Hubbard wins 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chuba HubbardRB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.8 | 8.9 |
| PPR projection | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Rank this week | RB24 | RB28 |
| Matchup | vs DET | at SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.2 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 7.4 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 49% |
| Trade value | 9 | — |