J.K. DobbinsorKyle Monangai?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins outscores Kyle Monangai in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyle Monangai comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean J.K. Dobbins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kyle Monangai projects 0.7 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Kyle Monangai has the better matchup against the New York Jets (27% more than average to RBs); J.K. Dobbins faces the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs). J.K. Dobbins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kyle MonangaiRB, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.4 | 10.3 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB25 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 9.8 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 8.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |