J.K. DobbinsorTony Pollard?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard outscores J.K. Dobbins in 55% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: J.K. Dobbins comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Tony Pollard, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tony Pollard projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Tony Pollard faces the Baltimore Ravens (1% more than average to RBs), J.K. Dobbins faces the San Francisco 49ers (5% more than average to RBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

J.K. Dobbins
Floor
4.0
Median
7.6
Ceiling
13.1
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Tony Pollard
Floor
3.5
Median
8.2
Ceiling
15.7
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
31%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJ.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETTony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.29.1
PPR projection8.610.1
Standard projection7.88.1
Rank this weekRB29RB27
Matchupat SFat BAL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game4.37.5
Last season per game11.010.0
Snap share, last game49%53%
Trade value——