Aaron JonesorTravis Etienne?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Travis Etienne in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Travis Etienne comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Aaron Jones, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Aaron Jones projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); Travis Etienne faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Travis EtienneRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 11.7 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB22 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 13.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 38% |
| Trade value | 3 | 14 |