Justice HillorKaelon Black?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black outscores Justice Hill in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justice Hill comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Kaelon Black, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justice Hill projects 0.6 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Kaelon Black has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Justice Hill faces the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kaelon Black wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justice HillRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| PPR projection | 7.4 | 5.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | RB35 | RB38 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Last season per game | 5.5 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | — |