Dylan SampsonorKaelon Black?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Dylan Sampson
Dylan Sampson outscores Kaelon Black in 55% of simulations.
Kaelon Black still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Dylan Sampson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dylan Sampson projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Dylan Sampson faces the New Orleans Saints (16% more than average to RBs), Kaelon Black faces the Las Vegas Raiders (11% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Dylan Sampson wins 61%; in Standard leagues, Kaelon Black is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 4.8
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 59%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 4.1
- Ceiling
- 9.4
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 71%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dylan SampsonRB, CLE, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 4.9 |
| PPR projection | 7.5 | 5.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Rank this week | RB37 | RB40 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| Last season per game | 4.7 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 47% |
| Trade value | — | — |