Braelon AllenorKaelon Black?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Braelon Allen
Braelon Allen outscores Kaelon Black in 73% of simulations.
Kaelon Black still comes out ahead in the other 27%, so Braelon Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Braelon Allen projects 4.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Kaelon Black has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (11% more than average to RBs); Braelon Allen faces the Kansas City Chiefs (13% fewer than average to RBs). Braelon Allen still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 4.1
- Ceiling
- 9.4
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 71%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Braelon AllenRB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 4.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.7 | 5.1 |
| Standard projection | 8.2 | 4.6 |
| Rank this week | RB26 | RB40 |
| Matchup | at KC | vs LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.4 | 4.2 |
| Last season per game | 3.6 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 47% |
| Trade value | — | — |