Kaelon BlackorMichael Carter?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black outscores Michael Carter in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Carter comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Kaelon Black, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kaelon Black projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Kaelon Black has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Michael Carter faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Michael Carter is the pick at 53%; in Standard leagues, Kaelon Black wins 64%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 9.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 70%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB39 |
| Matchup | at DAL | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| Last season per game | — | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | — |