Justice HillorKeaton Mitchell?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Keaton Mitchell
Keaton Mitchell outscores Justice Hill in 57% of simulations.
Justice Hill still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Keaton Mitchell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Justice Hill projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Keaton Mitchell faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs), Justice Hill faces the Cleveland Browns (7% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 3.3
- Ceiling
- 11.6
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 69%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.1
- Ceiling
- 9.4
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 71%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justice HillRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| PPR projection | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Standard projection | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB40 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 6.1 |
| Last season per game | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 46% | 34% |
| Trade value | — | — |