Justice HillorTyler Allgeier?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Tyler Allgeier
Tyler Allgeier outscores Justice Hill in 60% of simulations.
Justice Hill still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Tyler Allgeier is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tyler Allgeier projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Justice Hill has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (7% fewer than average to RBs); Tyler Allgeier faces the Los Angeles Rams (17% fewer than average to RBs). Tyler Allgeier still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 3.3
- Ceiling
- 11.6
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 69%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justice HillRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| PPR projection | 5.7 | 6.3 |
| Standard projection | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB35 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| Last season per game | 5.5 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 46% | 44% |
| Trade value | — | — |