Bam KnightorKeaton Mitchell?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Bam Knight
Bam Knight outscores Keaton Mitchell in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keaton Mitchell comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Bam Knight, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Bam Knight projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Bam Knight faces the Detroit Lions (7% fewer than average to RBs), Keaton Mitchell faces the Denver Broncos (8% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.9
- Ceiling
- 11.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 61%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| PPR projection | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Rank this week | RB36 | RB40 |
| Matchup | vs DET | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | 6.6 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 3.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 6% | 37% |
| Trade value | — | — |